J&K can see maximum utilization of hospital resources by May end

Predictive models forecast increase in cases, daily death

By Irfan Tramboo 

The predictive models that are operating based on the global COVID-19 data, predicts that the Union Territory of J&K and Ladakh are inching towards the peak of the maximum utilization of hospital resources by the end of May while, as per current projections, the daily deaths are also going to see the peak at the same time.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), Seattle, USA, which is operating a predictive model, states that the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh are going to have an aggregated 6,878 COVID-19 deaths based on the current projection scenario by August 1, above 7000 deaths in case thing take a bad turn and little over 6000 in case the public adheres to COVID SOPs particularly usage of masks.

The peak in daily deaths in J&K and Ladakh is going to be witnessed at the beginning of June, taking into consideration the worse conditions. In terms of the current projection scenario, the model shows, the peak—way lower than what is predicted in June—in the daily death is going to be witnessed by the end of May.

As per the data, the daily deaths in J&K and Ladakh can also see their minimum peak on or around May 8 in case 95% of mask usage is observed in the public.

What is to be noted here is that the model predicts J&K and Ladakh, both the UTs are inching towards the peak where there would be the maximum utilization of the hospital beds, ICUs.

As per the model, while the jump towards the peak has already started to pick, the peak can be witnessed by the end of May.

As per another predictive model, ‘COV-IND-19 Study Group’, J&K is going to add over 23 thousand COVID-19 cases by the end of April with it forecasting the caseload of 177,586 cases on April 30.